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    Summer monsoon rainfall prediction for India - Some new ideas

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    Predict_Meteorol_Events_Math_Approach_2005_77.pdf (355.8Kb)
    Date
    2005
    Author
    Varkey, M.J.
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    Abstract
    Present methods of forecasting of mean Indian rainfall for summer monsoon season are critically examined. Considering the wide variations in mean seasonal rainfalls (more than 5 to less than 400 cm) and crops in various regions of India, the predicted Indian mean summer monsoon rainfall value does not seem to be of any practical use in relation to various crops in different climatic regions. If predictions can be done for homogeneous climatobiological regions (HCBR) in which rainfall distributions show narrow variations only, their use can be better. One such HCBR consisting of 8 meteorological subdivisions in central India is identified. After a careful consideration of the variations in rainfalls over the different meteorological subdivisions, in intensity and duration, and tolerance levels of various crops during different phases of growth to different types of rains, it is found that floods and droughts only cause calamities like famine, diseases, loss of property etc. At present, a famine can be managed from existing food reserves. But if accurate predictions are possible, management of all forms of calamities would be easier. Hence, it is concluded that in the Indian situations, accurate predictions of droughts and floods are important and to be aimed at for homogeneous climatological regions
    URI
    http://drs.nio.org/drs/handle/2264/1016
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