Can we predict the frequency of cyclones over Bay of Bengal during October-December?
Abstract
Forecasting cyclone activity in Australian (Nicholls, 1984; 1992) and southern Pacific (Revell and Goulter, 1986) regions with SO (Southern Oscillation) and the influence of El-Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Bay of Bengal cyclones (Felton et al., 2013) were reported earlier. Balachandran and Geetha (2012) reported the statistical method to predict the cyclone days over north Indian ocean during the post-monsoon (October-December) season using the data from 19712000 and tested for the period, 2001-09. Singh (2008) studied the relationship between Indian Ocean dipole Mode Index (IODMI) and the frequency of cyclones over Bay of Bengal. He found that IODMI during September-October is negatively correlated (r = -0.4; significant at 99% level) with the frequency of cyclones during November. In this study an attempt has been made to examine the relationship between Sea surface Temperature (SST) and Total Number of Cyclones (TNC) (depressions + cyclones + severe cyclones) during postmonsoon (October-December) season over Bay of Bengal.
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