Uncertainties of the 50-year wave height estimation using generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions in the Indian Shelf seas
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Date
2019Author
Naseef, T.M.
SanilKumar, V.
Joseph, J.
Jena, B.K.
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Information about waves with specific return period in a region is essential for the safe design of marine facilities. In this study, significant wave height for 50-year return period is estimated using generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) based on the 15-year wave hindcast data. In order to realize the dependency of nature of the time series data on return value estimation, three types of data series: daily maxima (DM), monthly maxima (MM) and annual maxima (AM) are considered for GEV, whereas for GPD, threshold values are estimated from the parent data set at 6�h and the DM series. The GEV distribution shows that AM predicts higher significant wave height followed by MM and then DM. The large number (~ 50%) of smaller wave height value (< 1�m) in the DM leads to smaller estimate in wave height for 50-year return period for DM series compared to other data series. Among the locations studied, the maximum value of the significant wave height with 50-year return period by GEV with AM data series is 7.15�m in the western shelf seas and is 7.36�m for the eastern shelf seas, whereas the values based on GPD with peak over threshold are 6.94 and 7.42�m, respectively. Case studies are also done to know the influence of tropical cyclone on the estimated 50-year return value.
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