The maxima in northerly wind speeds and wave heights over the Arabian Sea, the Arabian/Persian Gulf and the Red Sea derived from 40 years of ERA5 data

Abstract

Recent studies point out the importance of northerly winds and waves in the Arabian Sea, especially those due to shamal and makran events in addition to the northeast monsoon system. We have analyzed climatology and trends of northerly maximum wind speed and significant wave height (Hs) in the Arabian Sea and the connected marginal seas, Arabian/Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, during non-monsoon season derived from 40 years of ERA5 wind and wave data, and estimated monthly, annual and decadal extreme climate and their trends. The study brings out an increasing trend in the northerly maximum wind speed (0.8–1.2 cm/s/year) and Hs (0.42–0.88 cm/year) in the southern and central Arabian Sea, which is consistent with the global trend in extreme wind speed and Hs. The northern Arabian Sea including the Sea of Oman exhibits significant decreasing trend in northerly maximum wind speed (− 1.4 cm/s/year) and Hs (− 0.67 cm/year), while the Gulf and the Red Sea exhibit sectorial contrasting trend, indicating the dominance of localized effects in modifying the regional climate. Distinct features identified in the climate and trends of northerly winds and waves are further discussed.