Multi-decadal changes of mangrove forest and its response to the tidal dynamics of thane creek, Mumbai

Abstract

Mangroves are one of the world threatened ecosystems, which is protected and categorised under CRZ-I according to the Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) notification. The present study marked the decadal (1990-2017, Landsat series) change of mangroves and mapped the species distribution (2017, Sentinel-2) around Thane creek, Mumbai using SMLC with QGIS-SCP software. ADCIRC model was used to simulate the tidal flooding/ebbing towards mangroves, and the model was validated with the in-situ observation of tides and currents. From 1990 to 2017, the mangrove area increased from 79.14 km2 to 154.5 km2 and expanded towards landward and seaward regions. Between 2010 and 2017, there was a fluctuation in the mangrove area with ups and downs in their distribution caused by different climatic conditions and anthropogenic activities. The increase in built-up area was two times than mangrove area increase. The dominance of Avicennia marina species confirms the increased anthropogenic activity along the landward side. To understand the response of mangroves to the tidal dynamics, the model was simulated with two scenarios; with mangroves and without mangroves. In the absence of mangroves (without mangroves), Thane Creek demonstrated a perfect funnelling effect by increased tidal amplification with strong flood currents, resulting in severe coastal inundation and erosion. While with mangroves, tidal currents attenuated 80% of its magnitude and favoured the sediment deposition in mangrove areas, which further enhanced mangrove growth, thereby stabilising the coast. The present study has found that the mangroves in the Thane creek are in the saturation stage and reached the maximum growth towards the landward. The study envisages that the stakeholders should adopt a proper management plan for the restoration of mangroves. The highlight of the present study is the combination of satellite imagery and hydrodynamic modelling. Satellite imagery provides the estimated extent of the mangroves, and this information will be used when simulating the model, which provides maximum inundation and attenuation. The utilisation of LULC classification and ADCIRC model results would be helpful to examine the threatening built-up area due to the tidal inundation. The combination of satellite classification and hydrodynamic model findings will be decisive for management authorities towards the conservation and regeneration activities for a balanced mangrove-creek ecosystem.