Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorGopika, S.
dc.contributor.authorLengaigne, M.
dc.contributor.authorSuresh, I.
dc.contributor.authorIzumo, T.
dc.contributor.authorKwatra, S.
dc.contributor.authorNeetu, S.
dc.contributor.authorVialard, J.
dc.date.accessioned2025-03-07
dc.date.accessioned2025-03-19T11:32:06Z
dc.date.available2024-11-15
dc.date.available2025-03-19T11:32:06Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.identifier.citationJournal of Climate, Vol.37(22);2025; 6011-6027
dc.identifier.issn0894-8755
dc.identifier.otherhttps://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0102.1
dc.identifier.urihttps://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/22/JCLI-D-24-0102.1.xml?tab_body=pdf
dc.identifier.urihttp://drs.nio.res.in/drs/handle/2264/9402
dc.descriptionIF2023= 4.8
dc.description.abstractAssessing if CMIP models can detect observed climate change signals is crucial for evaluating their realism and strengthening confidence in future projections. These signals can only be compared once distinguishable from the background climate noise. Built for impact studies but not detection purpose, the time of emergence (ToE) estimates when this occurs using a fixed signal-to-noise ratio. To more accurately assess models ability to reproduce observed cli- mate change signals, we introduce the time of detection (ToD), which employs a statistical significance test of the nonlinear trend, accounting for the time series length. ToD and ToE are computed for sea surface temperature (SST) and relative SST (RSST) across four observational and 69 CMIP5/6 historical and shared socioeconomic pathways 5 8.5 (SSP5 8.5) sce- nario datasets. ToD precedes ToE and is less sensitive to the chosen threshold. While already detectable in most of the tropics, SST warming in the equatorial Pacific is detectable in ;90% of models but only one out of four observational data- sets, due to a stronger modeled warming. Because RSST signals are weaker than SST signals, they do not emerge anywhere but are detectable in two regions. The enhanced warming in the western Indian Ocean, detected in ;45% of models, is not robust in observations when excluding pre-1960 dubious data. Conversely, the subdued southeast Pacific warming detected in observations and ;80% of models is robust and consistent with a poleward extension of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell. The ToD s ability to detect subtle signals allows for assessing the realism of the CMIP warming pattern in this region
dc.languageen
dc.publisherAmerican Metrolgical Society
dc.relation.isreferencedbySCI
dc.rightsOnly the author version of the copright reserved papers uploaded. Contact drs@nio.org for any complaints regarding copyright violations
dc.titleAssessing CMIP Models Ability to Detect Observed Surface Warming Signals Related to Climate Change
dc.typeJournal Article
dc.affiliation.authorCSIR-National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa, India


Files in this item

FilesSizeFormatView

There are no files associated with this item.

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record